The State of the Australian Trucking Industry 2025–26: Challenges, Opportunities & What’s Ahead

27 Oct Blog

If you run trucks, or supply those who do, you’ve probably felt the pinch in 2025. Costs are shifting, rules are tightening, and customer expectations keep climbing. The good news: there are tangible levers operators can pull to stay ahead in 2026. Here’s a clear-eyed view of where we are now, what’s coming next, and the practical moves worth making.

Where we stand in 2025

Australia’s domestic freight task continues to be enormous, with road and rail dominating the movement of goods nationwide. The Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (BITRE) notes the long-run growth of freight tonne-kilometres and the central role of road freight within that mix—context for why productivity and compliance improvements in road transport matter so much to the economy. Bureau of Transport Research

On costs, there’s been a modest breather at the bowser. The ACCC’s latest petroleum market report shows average retail prices fell in the June quarter 2025 (ACCC 2025; Evans 2025), including diesel, which eased across the major cities -though regional differentials and retailer margins still bite. The ACCC also breaks out the diesel price stack: international refined diesel (Singapore Gasoil 10ppm), plus excise/GST, plus wholesale/retail costs and margins.

Labour remains tight, even as overall vacancies soften. Jobs and Skills Australia reports vacancies are down from 2024 peaks but remain historically high, and multiple datasets keep pointing to structural driver shortages alongside an ageing workforce profile. Recent summarised figures from Jobs and Skills Australia and industry bodies highlight the persistent shortage and the skew toward older drivers.

Regulation is also moving. In June, the NHVR confirmed the rebrand/refresh of the Load Restraint Guide (LRG) and kicked off a review to keep guidance aligned with modern practice, an operational signal that enforcement expectations won’t loosen. Meanwhile, Euro VI-aligned emissions standards (ADR 80/04) are phasing in: new heavy model approvals from 1 Nov 2024 and all new heavy vehicles supplied from 1 Nov 2025, with associated mass implications being acknowledged by regulators.

Finally, infrastructure and decarbonisation. The 2025–26 Federal Budget earmarked billions for road and rail projects, vital for network reliability, and governments released a new National Freight & Supply Chain Strategy Action Plan that explicitly links freight competitiveness with a credible path to net zero. On the ground, ARENA has just funded Australia’s first shared electric-truck charging hub in Melbourne, and Viva Energy opened the country’s first public hydrogen refuelling station in Geelong – early signals that heavy-vehicle energy options are broadening.

2025 Cost Pressures Summary

Fuel. Diesel is still a big line item. While the June quarter 2025 brought some relief, volatility remains and the international refined diesel benchmark (Singapore Gasoil 10ppm) continues to drive wholesale costs. Even small swings flow directly into operating margins.

Labour. The Annual Wage Review 2025 increased award minimums from 1 July 2025. For transport businesses with award-reliant staff, that’s a direct payroll lift unless offset by productivity or pricing. At the same time, recruitment and retention remain hard in driver cohorts.

Regulation & compliance. Euro VI adoption adds weight for new trucks due to advanced after-treatment systems; regulators have acknowledged mass concessions to accommodate that. Load restraint expectations are being refreshed via the LRG review, and broader HVNL reform is now before the Queensland Parliament (the host jurisdiction), with changes flagged for fatigue record-keeping, enforcement, mass limits and a new national auditing standard. Expect compliance admin to change, and in some areas simplify, over the next 12–18 months.

Rising expectations: sustainability & technology

Customers are pushing for cleaner, more transparent freight. The federal Safeguard Mechanism is tightening baselines for large facilities and shaping expectations down the chain; state initiatives and trials (e.g., NSW ZEHV access and higher mass limits for ZEVs) are building the on-road evidence base. Operators won’t all adopt zero-emission trucks overnight, but the enabling infrastructure is finally emerging (charging hubs, hydrogen pilots) and will accelerate during 2026.

On the tech front, regulators are deepening use of telematics for access and compliance, and the NHVR continues to expand intelligent access programs. For operators, the payoff is greater route certainty and fewer manual admin tasks, but only if systems are configured and data is harnessed to actually reduce risk and downtime.

Looking ahead to 2026: what to watch

1. Energy price path & credits. Diesel could remain choppy. Budget for volatility rather than a straight glide down. Also note the road user charge escalation flowing through to fuel tax credit maths in 2025–26 (FTC interaction matters to your net fuel cost).
2. Workforce pipeline pressure. Even if vacancies ebb, the demographic bulge is real – more retirements, fewer entrants, with an expectation of 78,000 unfilled positions by 2029. Expect renewed focus on pathways (traineeships, recognition of prior learning, and better rosters).
3. HVNL reform implementation. Assuming the Queensland Bill progresses, expect staged changes across fatigue records, mass limits, auditing and enforcement. Build time in your 2026 plan for policy interpretation, system changes and training.
4. Zero-emission heavy-vehicle pilots scale up. With ARENA-backed charging and hydrogen fuelling now live, watch for early-mover case studies that clarify TCO (route lengths, back-to-base suitability, depot power upgrades). This won’t replace diesel broadly in 2026, but it will expand the set of viable use cases.
5. Ongoing load-restraint scrutiny. The refreshed LRG and continued incident learning will keep the spotlight on tags, ratings, and condition of equipment, plus the documentation behind your practices. Expect customers to ask for more evidence (photos, inspection logs, training records).

Opportunities hiding in plain sight

Productivity via equipment and access. The PBS program’s long record of productivity and safety benefits shows that smarter combinations and fit-for-task equipment can move the revenue needle. If you’re not at least benchmarking a PBS path for key corridors, you’re likely leaving productivity on the table.

Differentiation through reliability and safety proof. In a high-cost environment, the operators winning contracts aren’t always the cheapest, they’re the most reliable and easiest to audit. Demonstrable compliance (LRG-aligned restraint methods, documented pre-trip checks, and traceable equipment ratings) reduces your customers’ risk under Chain of Responsibility and increases your stickiness.

Energy pilots where they fit. Start with short urban loops, back-to-base, and night-charging opportunities. With government co-funding at the infrastructure level and early fleet support, select lanes can make economic sense sooner than you think.

Practical moves for 2026 planning

1. Lock in a fuel strategy, not just a price.
   Use the ACCC’s component view to build a hedging and procurement playbook (schedules for buying, supplier mix, and margin monitoring). Model scenarios with and without FTC changes and road user charge escalations so you know your true, net-of-credits cost curve.
2. Tighten labour economics and retention.
   After the 1 July 2025 wage changes, map your cost impact per lane and customer. Then reinvest in what keeps drivers: predictable rosters, newer cabins, and micro-training that lifts productivity per hour. Use Jobs and Skills Australia data to set realistic recruitment KPIs and lead times.
3. Audit load-restraint practices quarterly.
   Align your SOPs with the refreshed LRG, ensure tags/labels are legible and WLL/LC pairings are correct, and photograph key configurations as evidence packs. This protects margin by reducing incidents and speeds customer onboarding.
4. Pre-position for HVNL reform.
   Nominate an internal lead to track the Amendment Bill’s progress and interpret implications by function (ops, safety, HR). Prioritise digital fatigue records and audit-ready workflows so you’re not scrambling post-implementation.
5. Run a zero-emission ‘fit test’ on two lanes.
   Pick two lanes with high stop density or back-to-base profiles. Engage with charging hub providers (e.g., Melbourne’s ARENA-funded site) and OEMs to scope TCO, grid needs, and operational changes. Build a customer-facing narrative around emissions cuts and reliability.
6. PBS and access optimisation.
   Re-assess whether PBS combinations or access permits could lift payload or reduce trips on your highest-volume lanes. The history of PBS shows material safety and productivity gains when the vehicle is matched to the task.

Bottom line

Costs are still tight, but the toolbox is getting better. 2026 will reward operators who (1) treat fuel and credits as a managed system, (2) double-down on driver retention and training, (3) get ahead of HVNL and LRG changes, and (4) pilot low-emission options where the duty cycle actually fits. The market is not just asking for cheaper, it’s asking for reliable, compliant, and future-ready. If you can show that, you’ll win and keep the right customers.

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